The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has released its National Climate Outlook for the period October 2026 to March 2027, predicting a largely drier-than-normal summer season for most of Zimbabwe. The forecast, issued on Friday, 11 September 2026, points to a high probability of below-normal rainfall nationwide, driven by the ongoing El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
According to the MSD, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in its warm phase and is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. The IOD is also positive and likely to remain so until the end of January 2027 before transitioning to neutral in February. Together, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns increase the chances of drier conditions across the country.
For the first half of the season, October to December 2026, the outlook shows a high probability of below-normal rainfall across all provinces. The MSD notes that some areas in the extreme north of the country, including parts of Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland West, and Harare Metropolitan, have a relatively higher chance of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall, but overall the signal remains dry.
Looking at January to March 2027, the forecast is only slightly more varied: the southern and western regions, including Matabeleland South, southern Midlands, and parts of Masvingo, could receive normal rainfall with a bias toward below-normal totals. The rest of the country is likely to experience below-normal conditions.
The MSD has also warned that the onset of the rainy season may be highly erratic, with a significant portion of the country expected to see no effective start to the season. This pattern is similar to the 2023/24 and 2015/16 seasons, which were marked by widespread failure of seasonal onset across much of Zimbabwe.
Temperatures during the first three months of the season (October–December 2026) are expected to be warmer than normal. An update for the remaining three months will be issued later. Despite the heightened chance of a dry season, the department cautions that the risk of violent storms, flash floods, strong winds, and lightning strikes remains significant due to excess atmospheric heat.
The MSD has urged farmers, local authorities, and the public to take proactive measures such as water harvesting, irrigation planning, and drainage maintenance. It also emphasised that a seasonal forecast is a long-term planning tool and does not replace the need for short-term weather forecasts, which are crucial for capturing dry spells and the actual onset of the season.
The full outlook provides detailed monthly rainfall probabilities for each province and is available on the MSD website and through its regional offices.